Dear Friends,hello, I am Christian Luis Ahumada, founder and chief quantitative trading analyst of Prosper Grove Asset Management. I am very happy to gather with you in this group at such a meaningful moment to celebrate the warmth and greatness of Mother's Day.
A mother is the greatest presence in our lives. Whether through stormy years or our hard-working journeys, she is always the lighthouse guiding us, providing strength, courage, and direction. With selfless love, mothers silently guard every step of our growth.
Today, at this special moment, I invite every friend to take a moment to slow down and express their love. Whether it’s by buying a bouquet of flowers, sending a greeting, offering a hug, or simply saying a heartfelt "thank you" to their mothers, let us remember that gratitude should always be present in our hearts, no matter where we are.
As we express our affection and appreciation to our mothers, let us also remind ourselves: while we enjoy this warm time and cherish the happiness around us, as investors, we must never relax our keen insight and deep reflection on the market.
This weekend, we will focus on two core directions:
1.Interpret Major Macro Events: We will analyze significant macroeconomic events to understand the internal logic connecting policies and market movements.
2.Monitor Important Economic Data: We will pay close attention to key economic data coming out next week to assess potential changes in market rhythm, allowing us to clarify our next strategic layout.
Friends, this is not just an update of information but an evolution of the system itself. Through continuous learning and reflection, we can further enhance and upgrade the dynamic diversified asset allocation framework, laying a solid foundation for navigating market fluctuations and achieving sustainable wealth growth.
Let’s now turn our focus to the major events and key economic data that deserve our attention.
Major Event to Watch:
1.President Trump kicks off his trip to the Middle East.
President Trump will visit Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Doha, Qatar; and Abu Dhabi, UAE, in sequence. During the trip, multiple high-level summits are scheduled, with expectations of announcing major investment and cooperation projects across key sectors such as defense, aviation, infrastructure, and technology.
This is not only a diplomatic engagement but also a strategic-level reshaping of capital flows, sending out several highly noteworthy signals.
a. Diversified industrial investments beyond energy will become a key focus.
b. Through substantial investment cooperation, the strategic partnerships with Middle Eastern countries will be restructured, creating new pillars of regional stability.
c. Sectors such as technology, defense, and energy may present structural opportunities in the short to medium term, driven by the simultaneous strengthening of policy support and capital expectations.
2. Remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
Last week, as widely expected by the market, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the third consecutive time. Following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech that conveyed several key signals worthy of close attention from the market.
a. Fed's stance: cautious response with a patient wait-and-see approach
b. Policy strategy: a watchful approach with built-in warnings, remaining flexible to adapt to changes
c. The Fed does not rule out the possibility of a rate cut if necessary, but it requires sufficient data to support such a move.
d. Market guidance: Current policy has not shifted toward tightening, and the underlying logic of the trend remains intact.
At this moment, the Federal Reserve is in a critical phase of closely monitoring economic data and patiently waiting for clear signals, so Chairman Powell’s remarks will further help us identify clues about the future path of interest rates.
Key Economic Data to Watch:
1.April CPI Year-over-Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by typical households and serves as a core indicator for measuring the level of inflation.
The April CPI Year-over-Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted, refers to the increase in the Consumer Price Index in April of this year compared to April of last year, without excluding seasonal factors.
If the CPI comes in higher than market expectations, it indicates rising inflationary pressure, which could lower expectations for a Fed rate cut and have a negative impact on investment markets.
If the CPI comes in lower than market expectations, it suggests easing inflation, which could increase expectations for a Fed rate cut and have a positive impact on investment markets.
2. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending May 10
Initial jobless claims refer to the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It serves as an indicator of the health of the labor market and the overall state of economic development.
If the reported number is higher than market expectations, it indicates increased layoffs by businesses and a potential decline in consumer spending power. This may raise expectations for a Fed rate cut, which could have a positive impact on investment markets.
If the reported number is lower than market expectations, it suggests fewer layoffs and a healthy labor market. This may reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut, which could have a negative impact on investment markets.
3. April PPI Year-over-Year
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the prices businesses pay for raw materials, goods, or services during the production process. It serves as a leading indicator for inflation.
If the PPI comes in higher than market expectations, it indicates significant upstream cost pressures. Businesses may pass these costs on to end consumers, potentially driving up future CPI. This could reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut and have a short-term negative impact on investment markets.
If the PPI comes in lower than market expectations, it indicates easing cost pressures for businesses, which would also likely lead to a lower CPI. This increases market expectations for a Fed rate cut and has a positive impact on investment markets.
4. April Retail Sales Month-over-Month
The retail sales month-over-month figure reflects changes in consumer spending at retail and food service establishments. It covers a wide range of end-consumer sectors, from automobiles and apparel to dining, and serves as an important indicator of household consumption capacity and willingness.
If retail sales data exceeds expectations, it indicates stronger consumer spending, increased economic activity, and greater market confidence in economic growth, which has a positive impact on investment markets.
If retail sales data falls short of expectations, it suggests weakening consumption and rising concerns about economic slowdown, which negatively affects investment markets.
Dear friends, today’s session has successfully come to an end. Thank you to each and every one of you for your attentive listening and thoughtful reflection.
A new trading cycle is about to begin, and we are about to embark on another investment journey filled with opportunities and challenges. On this road full of uncertainty, I firmly believe that continuously refining and upgrading a dynamic diversified asset allocation framework will help us achieve compound wealth growth through various shifts in market cycle styles.
Investing is never a momentary impulse, but a lifelong journey of commitment to systems, understanding, and discipline. I look forward to walking this ever-evolving investment path alongside you, as we move together toward financial freedom.
See you tomorrow.