The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases slowed in April as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target. The release comes as investors have been closely watching data releases for signs of how President Trump's tariff policy is impacting the economy.
The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.5% on an annual basis, in line with expectations and lower than the 2.7% seen in March. Core prices rose 0.1% in April from the prior month, in line with expectations and the monthly increase seen in March.
On a yearly basis, PCE increased by 2.1%, below the 2.2% economists had expected.
The release is yet another sign that while economists and consumers alike expect Trump's tariffs to push prices higher, the inflationary impact from policy largely isn't showing up in hard economic data. Friday morning's release reflects the month of April, the first month in which a large portion of Trump's tariffs were in effect.
It does not include any impacts from the 90-day tariff pause between the US and China.
"The increased tariffs have not yet worked their way into the consumer inflation readings, but we anticipate that the improved inflation trend will reverse in the second half of the year as companies are forced to begin passing along a portion of the increased tariffs in order to protect profit margins," Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a research note on Friday.
On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting revealed officials are growing increasingly concerned about how Trump's policies could impact its fight against inflation.
"Almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected," the minutes read.